Quick-Notes

  1. Crash course climate; impacts paper; US after 2%, CCIR VIP. Morgan Stanley climate investment. See Andrew Sheets, outlook; BBC: Big Oil at max! Axios CCIR. Climate change ==> conflict.
  2. ReWork, Maier.
  3. global economy 2050, emerging rule, Global Security, China 175% USA. Steady State GDP meter.
  4. horrific world 2050: Business Insider, subscribed; pwc idealism ; charts; futurism; academic futurist; Schatzie project;
  5. 2030 bad for US; WB data sets; Maddison forecasts; EU WB IMF joint 2030 gdp forecast. Error prone, too optimistic; Gary Schilling on long term growth and inv, BBG;
  6. Vox Dev economics; Saudi mercenary children from Darfur, NYT;
  7. BBG migration overview; millennials overview re economy, BBG;
  8. rethink US energy w unstable MidEast: more renewables more secure. BBG energy future;
  9. Koch Summit, Nation; Exxon; collect Jane Mayer, Naomi Klein, Korton, et al. Yellow Jackets kill carbon tax. Pocketbook ==> pushback, NYT;
  10. Braudel-Polanyi Synthesis, GDr. Some important links. Alt-K GDr page. Polanyi paper; add Alperovitz Pluralist Commonwealth, even 3F Perlas. Video with Blessed Unrest. Worker ownership. See Speth. Informal economy, livelihood google scholar. See Quote, exactly right. Use value;
  11. US industry, SIC code search: Colin Clark; coal more mercury; carbon border tax;
  12. War on climate activism in France. Yellow Jackets rebel, raises inequality concern and discourages carbon tax.

Population-2050

UN forecast: 2017 = 7.6; 30 = 8.6; 50 = 9.8; 2100 = 11.2. See Pew, better analysis. WB 2019. The Conversation, more critical. Stewart blog most intriguing. Graphs.

Only a few countries, all poor but horrific consequences. Aging pyramids, w consequences. See WB blogs.

Comments

Pop growth (see Ehrlich text) among poorest, so social costs, not growth, will ensue. By def, mortality must increase. Appears not to embed CCIR.

Food-Ag

Beef lobbies hard. See Amazon.

CCIR, food production down, shift in ss and dd geography, but pop levels. Randers not concerned, others are. Much tech at work.

Land grabs, see Klare. Brown re food and ag.

Livelihood plays into this. Bad corp behavior re Monsanto, others.

Exxon-distortion

Exxon “Catastrophe”

Exxon case divulges my assumption that Crony Capitalism will fight back against Climate Catastrophe. Read Jane Mayer and Naomi Klein.

This case provides the smoking gun evidence that Capitalism will willingly destroy Earth for the sake of profit.

Study

WaPo, NYT Exxon, NYT background;

BBG Exxon doubles down, 25% increase, until 2025, $200 bn in new drilling. So contesting Exxon’s expansion: oil in Brazil & Guyuna and LNG in Mozambique and Papua New Guinea, is essential. Climate news. Inflated value of reserves, violating SEC: Climate News good source re tar sands as, like coal, potential stranded resource. See background, nat gas shift. Industry undermines climate talks.

NB, catastrophe as sudden, oed, final, conclusive. So need synonym.

Shift from future to present threat.

ZK

Crony Capitalism in the USA will dominate, especially if a recession hits in 2020 and if Trump wins re-election. Inequality will fester, deficits balloon into the trillions each fiscal year, climate catastrophe will hit earlier and harder than anticipated. Calls for reform to capitalism will contradict falling profits, so the system will become more repressive and reactionary. Democratic norms, practices, and institutions will wither. Trolls will patrol voices to the contrary. Elections will be rigged. Game this out.  NYT column.