This post derives from the introduction to Degrowth.
A seminal source for this blog site, Fernand Braudel on civilization and capitalism, begins its long journey with population. So do we.
Population growth in the high-consumption nations and world-regions will approach ZPG, Zero Population Growth — or may even decline. Such a fertility trend would greatly reduce the pressure on Earth’s carrying capacity for 2050. Among the rest of the world, growth rates will sharply decline, but Africa remains of great concern and must be specifically addressed. (See U.N. forecast.
Population projections will likely approach the low end of the anticipated range. My expectation that the impacts of climate change of agricultural and industrial productivity will slow the stress on the carrying capacity of the Earth, already in Overshoot (Catton). Consider these basic trends:
- Population growth will decelerate: learn about the trends here but the deflection point may occur around 2030 — if not before. According to the U.N., the world’s Crude Death Rates may rise after 2030. (U.N. population trends need further analysis here.)
- The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention already reports that longevity in the US has declined since 2014. This is a big deal.
Demographers are among the most careful and deliberate folks on the planet, but their established methods of projection, based on (past) data, may not adjust for a new paradigm that brings us to 2050. The major difference could be effects of the Earth’s changing climate.
Population and economic trends interconnect
As population slows down, so does economic growth, but not necessarily growth in per capital income. If an economy’s GDP increases by, say 3%, but its population increases by, say 3%, the net effect on per capita income is zero . If inflation proceeds at 3%, the real growth per capita declines 3%. Thus, stagnation.
However, consider a high-consumption country, the USA. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office forecasts that U.S. real (inflation adjusted) GDP growth will slow to 2%. But if the U.S. population grows by 1% per year, the rate of per capital growth is 1%, negligible. So, what if all the gains go to the very top 1% (or 0.1%) and expectations are disappointed? Read today’s news to find out: The USA is essentially there: stagnation. Capitalism does not work well under conditions of stagnation, especially if the population is aging. See Japan for two decades or so.
The next topic, economic growth, will pick up this theme.