Quick-Notes

  1. Crash course climate; impacts paper; US after 2%, CCIR VIP. Morgan Stanley climate investment. See Andrew Sheets, outlook; BBC: Big Oil at max! Axios CCIR. Climate change ==> conflict.
  2. ReWork, Maier.
  3. global economy 2050, emerging rule, Global Security, China 175% USA. Steady State GDP meter.
  4. horrific world 2050: Business Insider, subscribed; pwc idealism ; charts; futurism; academic futurist; Schatzie project;
  5. 2030 bad for US; WB data sets; Maddison forecasts; EU WB IMF joint 2030 gdp forecast. Error prone, too optimistic; Gary Schilling on long term growth and inv, BBG;
  6. Vox Dev economics; Saudi mercenary children from Darfur, NYT;
  7. BBG migration overview; millennials overview re economy, BBG;
  8. rethink US energy w unstable MidEast: more renewables more secure. BBG energy future;
  9. Koch Summit, Nation; Exxon; collect Jane Mayer, Naomi Klein, Korton, et al. Yellow Jackets kill carbon tax. Pocketbook ==> pushback, NYT;
  10. Braudel-Polanyi Synthesis, GDr. Some important links. Alt-K GDr page. Polanyi paper; add Alperovitz Pluralist Commonwealth, even 3F Perlas. Video with Blessed Unrest. Worker ownership. See Speth. Informal economy, livelihood google scholar. See Quote, exactly right. Use value;
  11. US industry, SIC code search: Colin Clark; coal more mercury; carbon border tax;
  12. War on climate activism in France. Yellow Jackets rebel, raises inequality concern and discourages carbon tax.

Exxon-distortion

Exxon “Catastrophe”

Exxon case divulges my assumption that Crony Capitalism will fight back against Climate Catastrophe. Read Jane Mayer and Naomi Klein.

This case provides the smoking gun evidence that Capitalism will willingly destroy Earth for the sake of profit.

Study

WaPo, NYT Exxon, NYT background;

BBG Exxon doubles down, 25% increase, until 2025, $200 bn in new drilling. So contesting Exxon’s expansion: oil in Brazil & Guyuna and LNG in Mozambique and Papua New Guinea, is essential. Climate news. Inflated value of reserves, violating SEC: Climate News good source re tar sands as, like coal, potential stranded resource. See background, nat gas shift. Industry undermines climate talks.

NB, catastrophe as sudden, oed, final, conclusive. So need synonym.

Shift from future to present threat.

ZK

Crony Capitalism in the USA will dominate, especially if a recession hits in 2020 and if Trump wins re-election. Inequality will fester, deficits balloon into the trillions each fiscal year, climate catastrophe will hit earlier and harder than anticipated. Calls for reform to capitalism will contradict falling profits, so the system will become more repressive and reactionary. Democratic norms, practices, and institutions will wither. Trolls will patrol voices to the contrary. Elections will be rigged. Game this out.  NYT column.

Capitalisms-sources

Annotated Bibliography

Alperovitz, Gar: Pluralist Commenwealth and capitalist reform book. Peruse for insight.

Clark, Colin: sectors as SIC, with payoff, including connection to Fed regions.

Gordon, Robert S. Rise and Fall of American Growth. Classic, the best source. [use for PWII and general source.]

Hymer, Stephen: a forgotten great re hierarchy.

Piketty, Thomas. Capital in the 21st Century. Masterpiece.

Schweikert: Kindle, sociological, ideological, vague & unpersuasive.

Schumpeter: silly at times but highly influential and ideological, not empirical.

Stiglitz. Inequality, AGLZ.

 

CCIR

Oreskes and Stern NYT 191024: much worst. Built in NOW: 5%, 32 to 65 feet ocean rise.

See Grantham Research Institute, Potsdam Institute, Earth Institute, Greenpeace

stationarity: presume from past conditions, bad to grasp rapid change; parameters become variables in models. Example Himalaya glacial melt and water downstream. Cascading feedbacks. Elizabeth Kolbert. Fugue state: disassociation from one’s world.

Nothing coherent, a gap that must be filled ASAP, from economics perspective, starting with Stern Report then elaborate.

review of IPCC; CC as social, not ind: rad urbanist, fail to act, or think w economist cover image. India slows down emissions in 2019, breakthrough: demand slows and shift to renewables (unstoppable?).

Coal plants in EU unprofitable: now what? More subsidies? As in Poland. Efficient plants okay. Carbon Brief compares 1.5 vs 2. -13% GDP at 2 degrees.