OK, Hillary unexpectedly lost against DJT in 2016. Her negatives hit 50% and lots of shy Trump voters may have confused the national polls. Not so as I blog on October 16, 2020. The statewide polls, forecasts, Blue $ in the till, and betting markets point toward a Blue Tsunami. What does this mean?
Clarity, not finality, will arrive early in the morning of November 4th as the ultimate victor in the Presidential election, Joe Biden, triumphs. The Senate leader will be Chuck Schumer. I map what to look for on Election Evening, below. So it begins.
Some falderal will bluster forth, but Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin will have voted for Biden. Florida will obscure the vote as shenanigans such as outright voter suppression and vote fraud will be perpetrated — and soon investigated. The total contested vote count will not exceed the margin of Biden victory, so the retro effort will be rendered moot — except to investigate conspiracies to undermine the elections, such as happened already in Michigan.
If PA’s balloting becomes so contested as to not seat Electors, highly unlikely, the absence of the 20 electoral votes could shift the election to the House, where the complications will involve the Supreme Court. This tactic might also contaminate the Florida vote, already suppressed by GOP. Like so many citizens, I have little confidence in the integrity of SCOTUS.
The tell: AG Barr appears to sit out the election, withdrawing his support for DJT. Game over. Hard level Trump appointees are sending out resumes. Christopher Wray, FBI Director, is sitting tight, perhaps soon to be fired. A new, more progressive regime will quickly take shape in the USA. Yup.
Since I see the Blue Tsunami rumbling toward shore, I wished to get out the news in advance, at 7 a.m. on Friday, October 16th, with several updates. We will see.
Early signs on election night:
Update from 538: When results arrive by states. Watch NC at 7:30, then PA, FL. NH, ME at 8, then MI, WI at 9. Roberts has mollified SCOTUS, perhaps to preserve its, and his, legitimacy and forestall a Schumer-led Senate rebalancing of McConnell’s ideologically packed judiciary. Trump has shifted his “victory party” from his DC hotel to the White House, perhaps to hide out. His concern will be his self-pardon.
The election may drag on as mail votes are counted and as Trump makes a fuss, probably without evidence. As a junkie of the political map, here is what I will look for as early signs on election night:
- Maine Senate race: Will Gideon trump Collins in the premier Senate race? If so, Chuck Schumer will more likely assume the important role of Senate Leader. The Maine Senate result is a big deal.
- If Biden unquestionably takes Maine and New Hampshire, the election trends toward Biden may be revealed. A big tell: Northern Maine, district 2. The first sighting of the Blue Tsunami will be visible here.
- Trump must win Pennsylvania, but expect a lot of dueling accusations of vote manipulation. But if Biden appears strong early, Trump will have to vacate the Oval Office on January 20th, just ahead of the fumigators.
- Look next to North Carolina‘s Senate race. If Cunningham (D) leads incumbent Tillis (R), Moscow Mitch is likely not to be Leader when the new Senate is seated on January 3, 2021 — 17 days before the Inauguration. Without Chuck, Joe will be hampered just as McConnell did to Obama.
- If Biden is ahead or even close in North Carolina, bad news for Trump, who needs NC.
- Florida will be a hot mess with a lot of heated rhetoric but will be close, within a single percent. If Trump loses Florida, pop the champagne, Joe.
- Of course, the final results will be obscure for a while, but if election night ends with Biden winning in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, or just two of these upper-mid-west states and Pennsylvania, Biden has achieved 270 electoral votes, chicanery aside. The election map cannot align with Trump’s victory. Do the map your way.
- Notice turnout throughout Election Day. If the total vote consistently exceeds the 2016 participation state-by-state, Joe should start his acceptance speech.
- Later in the evening the entire Pacific Coast, minus Alaska, will go strongly for Biden, a potential landslide. Watch the Senate races in Michigan, Arizona, and Colorado to determine if Schumer runs the Senate. This could be close.
- If a blue trifecta, watch as Republicans such as AG Barr (as in disBarr) run for cover and attempt to rewrite their allegiance, sort of like rats on a sinking ship. Then the fun starts.
My guess, over two weeks ahead: The Blue Tsunami secures a Biden victory and a Schumer-led Senate. Trump will fuss, lie, threaten. Trump will attempt to pardon himself and his family. He is President until noon on January 21st. Maybe not.
Trump, citing the Second Amendment, may enact emergency powers and other desperate measures. It’s over, dude. The Secret Service will not throw him out of the Oval Office: The fumigators will.
Trump may resign, give the job to VP Pence, who might then issue the prospective pardon. Trump will claim that he has better, more lucrative things to do. He publicly exclaims that he may leave the country — but Putin has no further use for his asset. Whatever.
Trump Trolls will spin their narrative. Senator Sasse has started his cover. The fickle Mitt Romney may initiate his apologetics.
The stock market’s short-term volatility will revert to the mean: Earnings per share growth will provide an impetus based on economic fundamentals. The expected “tax hike” on the 0.1% from a gradual reduction in capital gains tax will lower the effective tax rate on annual incomes from capital over $400,000. Not mine nor yours, so don’t buy the swill. Public health will spawn economic health, widely distributed.
Infrastructure capital improvements, investment in renewable energy and upgraded smart grids, will decentralize economic growth, not highly concentrated. Health and education spending will propel human capital. Rural America, so overlooked, will improve with broadband, farm aid, and decentralized growth centers to guide investment.
Joe, Nancy, and Chuck will work with Governors to ensure a brighter future for American democracy and fairness. Black Lives will matter more. Policing will become more professional (education, monitoring, licensed training), rewarding (higher pay and budgets — not defunding), and supported (backup, services). Women will be supported. Health care will be secured. The retro deregulation will gradually be reversed with smarter support for responsible Stakeholder (not Shareholder) capitalism.
The Proud Boys will shrink from their FBI investigations. Analysts will pour over vote counts, a highly useful exercise. Investigators will intensify their scrutiny of voter suppression and fraud.
Dems should mount Operation Hardball. SCOTUS may respect precedent rather than force an expansion. D.C. and Puerto Rico may join Pacific Islands (other than Hawaii) in statehood — ensuring Senate Leadership for a long time. Gerrymandering, voter suppression, and sloppy election procedures will be rectified. Dem efforts will devolve to state and local elections and policy.
Foreign policy will tend toward building alliances to secure peace and address climate catastrophes. The military will be engaged only where it counts. Veterans will be supported.
My suggestion if all this proves correct: Since the archaic GOP-biased Electoral College cannot be amended, form a Blue Interstate Compact (with or even without Senate approval) instructing all Electors to vote for the winner of the popular vote in all member states of the Blue Interstate Compact. This assures 216 electoral votes, assuring a clinch on the Electoral College. Adding DC, Puerto Rico, and the Pacific States to the USA, requiring only an act of Congress, assures a Senate majority. Get this, Chuck, Joe, and Nancy.
The Blue Tsunami will clear the stench from the Swamp. The mantra: Never again.